Saurabh Garg on The New New Thing

I am adding another category to the blog. Trendwatching.

I define TrendWatching as a disciple where one observes (not sees), engages people in conversations (not interviews), identifies what is popular (not market research) and finally using these popular social objects to help businesses.

Why TrendWatching?
Market research as we know it is dead. I have huge reservations against the very premise of market research. If the respondents know that they are being researched, they more likely would come up with made up stories rather than answers. Then there is an entire issue about intelligence and commitment of the research agency. How do you know that interviews were actually conducted? How do you know that there are no errors in recording? And other millions questions like that.

TrendWatching can be the future of market research. Although it has been there since early 1990s and there are numerous companies making decent money predicting trends, yet it is still not taken seriously. Companies in India don’t even know about it. And hence the opportunity.

Predictions made by trendwatchers might or might not be accurate but they are far superior than a traditional market research. Trendhunters have been reported to be very accurate in predicting trends, fads and about-to-be-cult things in technology, pop culture, fashion, entertainment, media and youth.

How can one benefit from TrendWatching?
If you are a business and you know whats in vogue, you can use it for your brand to get new customers and keep existing ones excites. It also helps make your brand more relevant, pertinent and contemporary.

Its like looking in the glass ball and getting a perspective on things that would be cult in years to come and your business and brand can use these inputs to succeed. If I can draw an analogy, in all facets of life we have people who predict the future based on some logical assumptions. Institutions like meteorological departments, astrologers, stock traders, policy makers, governments, economists etc. so it all the time. Why not do it with business? And if you are accurate even at 1% of times, there are immense gains to be made.

If you are an individual, you can figure out what is in vogue and you would not be known as a drab person. It will elevate your social status in your peer group.

How to go about TrendWatching?
I have certain ideas and I am trying to use them with my employer. But most of these are what I have read online and I am simply making incremental changes to what people in other evolved economies are doing. It involves using Malcolm Gladwell’s now famous work titled The Tipping Point. It assumes that there are certain people who are very much involved into one activity and are experts by the virtue of their indulgence. If we bring few such experts and let them talk to each other, we can have interesting observations.

The biggest stumbling block and (as Michael Porter would put it) the entry barrier to this business is access to these people. You need to be able to identify these people, get them to work for you and get into a conversation. And moment we talk about people being a key criteria, we are talking about emotions and uncertainty.

One reason for this post is to connect with marketers and futurists who love to ideate and have ideas on how to do things differently. Please help in identifying such people.

End Notes
I see immense business potential with TrendWatching in times to come. Especially in India. This is one of those businesses where capital required is minimal and business can generate awesome cash flows.

I invite readers to share their perspectives on this. Please be critical.

Google’s April Fool’s Day pranks is an awesome way to get free PR. Google creates a small application around search and then they release on the Internet. And all this is done with as much fan-fare and secrecy as an actual product.

They have played a lot if interesting pranks over the years and no wonder the entire world waits and watches what they would do this year. What is amazing is that even though people expect them to do things on 1st April, they still manage to come up with something that can surprise the world.

Lessons for companies? Start small things like April Fool’s Day pranks that can grow bigger with time and people will actually look forward to reading about it. And all these things count in the end. Especially for a small and a growing company.

List of Google April Fool’s Day pranks over the years
1. gDay with MATE
2. Google Romance
3. Virgin and Google’s Virgile
4. Gmail Paper
5. Google Mentalplex
6. PigeonRank
7. GoogleGulp
8. Google TISP

Did I miss something?

Date: 29th March 2008
Loc: SJSOM, IIT Mumbai
Agenda: None :)

And this “none” agenda makes a barcamp an interesting place to go. I was there for Mumbai Barcamp 2 also and I met few good people there. Hope to bump into more people this time. Also, last time, I saw a lot of people and companies walking in herds and trying to create things without even knowing “the why” question. Hope things change this time around.

Register: http://barcampmumbai.org/BCM3_registrants

As of now 200 people have registered already. Keep watching this space for more.

Update: As on 26th March, more than 400 registrations. Looks promising.

Introducing Idea Economy.